Operational Status
Total Fiat Liabilities
$0.00B
Synthetic exchange
Total AUM
$0.00B
Incl. crypto assets
Open Interest
$0.00B
1.5× AUM · perps + CFD
Insurance Fund
$0.0M
0.5% of AUM · current
Fiat Reserve Position
—
—
Shortfall vs. required Layer 1 reserve
Current reserve (gateway)
—
Required — Layer 1 (VaR)
—
Required — Layer 2 (P95)
—
Gap to Layer 1 minimum
—
Insurance Fund Position
—
—
Projected shortfall under active scenario
Current IF balance
—
Expected drawdown (P99)
—
P(fund exhaustion)
—
Expected clawback
—
Time to Reserve Exhaustion
—
—
At current withdrawal velocity
Institutional lead detected
—
Current withdrawal velocity
—
Retail panic onset (est.)
—
Weekend Readiness
—
Total capital gap
—
Fiat shortfall + IF gap under active scenario P99
Fiat reserve gap
—
Insurance fund gap
—
Proprietary capital buffer
—
Net position
—
Required Action
—
—
—
Normal P99 Withdrawal
$0M
Mild P99 Withdrawal
$0M
Severe P99 Withdrawal
$0M
Institutional Lead Time
~6-8 hours
Withdrawal Distribution by Scenario
Normal
Mild
Severe
64-Hour Cumulative Withdrawal Paths
Scenario Comparison Matrix
| Scenario | Trigger | Daily Rate | Mean Withdrawal | P95 | P99 | CVaR 99% |
|---|
Key Insight: Institutional withdrawals lead retail by ~6-8 hours in severe stress. Poisson arrival rate rises 12× from normal to severe — the primary driver of tail risk.
Stressed Balance Sheet Waterfall (Severe Scenario)
VaR Method Comparison
| Method | VaR 95% | VaR 99% | CVaR 99% | % of AUM | Note |
|---|
Insurance Fund Drawdown Distribution (Severe)
Note: EWMA effective sample size = 0 days. The model is almost entirely pricing current volatility, not history — it will give false comfort in a calm market.
Three-Layer Reserve Allocation (Recommendation)
| Layer | Purpose | Instrument | Size | Annual Cost | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layer 1 — Instant | Normal withdrawals | Fiat in payment gateway | $0M | $0M | Zero delay |
| Layer 2 — Fast | Institutional jump phase | Stablecoins, Overnight Repo | $0M | $0M | ~Hours |
| Layer 3 — Liquid | Crisis backstop | T-bills, Money Market | $0M | — | 1-2 days |
RECOMMENDED MINIMUM RESERVE
Tier 1 — Operating (VaR)
$0M
Tier 2 — Crisis (Scenario)
$0M
P(shortfall | Normal)
0.00%
P(shortfall | Severe)
0.00%
Reserve Cost Curve (Newsvendor Optimization)
Warning: Stablecoins are operationally near-cash but systemically correlated with crypto stress. Layer 2 should be predominantly money market / T-bills, not stablecoin-heavy.